Affected by severe drought, Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production is expected to decline by 3-8%, with Arabica beans seeing the most severe reduction, while Robusta bean production is set to reach a record high. Rabobank predicts total production will fall 6.4% to 62.8 million bags (60 kg per bag), while Itaú Unibanco estimates 64.4 million bags, a 3% decline.

This drought, which affected 5 million square kilometers in 2024, caused flowering disruptions in major Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais, with local rainfall decreasing by 40-60%.

Arabica coffee production may plummet 13.6% to 38 million bags, while Robusta coffee could grow 7.3% to 24.7 million bags due to farmers in Espírito Santo and Bahia states expanding irrigated areas.

Heavy pruning of Arabica coffee trees after low yields will further cut production. Pine Agronegócios warns total production will fall 8% to 59.75 million bags, with Arabica declining 16%.

Inventories may hit a historic low of 1.6 million bags, forcing exports down 22% to 39.24 million bags. Domestic consumption may slip 4.5% due to soaring prices. Global coffee futures have risen 20%, compelling roasters to increase the proportion of Robusta beans in blends.

#Rabobank Crop Survey Results

Rabobank released its latest estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production. The Dutch bank predicts Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production at 62.8 million bags (60 kg per bag), down 6.8% from 2024/25, mainly due to 2024's dry weather.

Rabobank states that Brazil's Arabica coffee production is expected to drop sharply by 13.6% to about 38 million bags, while Robusta production is forecast to grow 7.3% to a record 24.7 million bags, partially offsetting Arabica's slump.

Rabobank says the 2024 dry weather severely affected the flowering period, thereby impacting Arabica coffee production. Nevertheless, despite a pessimistic outlook for Rondônia state, the Robusta harvest is expected to be very substantial.

#Itaú BBA Production Forecast

In contrast, Itaú BBA bank decided to keep its forecast for 2025/26 coffee production unchanged at 64.4 million bags. This estimate represents a 3% decline from the 66.4 million bags reported by the USDA for the 2024/25 season.

Itaú BBA expects Arabica coffee production to decrease by 10% to 40.9 million bags, while Robusta production will surge 12% to 23.5 million bags.